Newsletter Mercados

Thursday's session on September 10, 2026, was characterized by risk aversion in European equities, amid high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and monetary tightening by the ECB. The institution raised its three key interest rates by 25 bps, placing the deposit facility at 2.50%, and adopted a restrictive tone with upward revisions to inflation and growth. Energy prices registered significant increases, fueling inflationary concerns and pressuring sovereign bonds. In the US, the PPI exceeded expectations, reinforcing the probabilities of a Fed rate hike. Major European indices closed in negative territory, with the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,268.97 points (-0.67%) and the DAX at 25,361 (-0.84%). Brent climbed 6.34% to 107.63 USD/bbl, and European TTF rose 3.4% to 82.56 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD depreciated slightly to 1.1630, and the DXY remained firm at 98.79. The higher-for-longer rate narrative solidified, with the market awaiting upcoming inflation data and the Fed meeting.

The European sovereign debt market reacted clearly to the ECB's restrictive tone and US inflation data. The German 2-year Bund yield rose 12 bps to 3.19%, its highest level in almost three years, reflecting significant repricing in the short end of the curve. In the long end, the US 10-year Treasury reached 4.845%, a high since 2023, pulling European yields higher. The spread between the French 10-year OAT and the German 10-year Bund widened to 90 bps, showing an increase of 0.77% during the session. This movement suggests a political and fiscal risk premium in France, although the lack of granular data for all curves and swaps limits a deeper assessment. The main drivers were: 1) the ECB's rate hike and its hawkish tone, 2) the higher-than-expected US PPI, and 3) rising energy prices, which elevate inflation expectations. The 2s10s Bund curve likely flattened, but without exact data, this cannot be confirmed. Swap markets (EUR IRS 10y, USD IRS 10y) and asset swap spreads are not available for this session. The conclusion is that the market is discounting higher rates for longer, with eyes on the US CPI and the Fed meeting.

European sovereign debt experienced widespread selling pressure on Thursday, September 10, 2026, in response to the ECB and US inflation data. The 2-year German Bund yield rose 12 bps to 3.19%, its highest level in nearly three years, while the 10-year Treasury reached 4.845%, its highest since 2023. The spread between the 10-year French OAT and the 10-year German Bund widened to 90 bps, with a 0.77% increase on the day, reflecting a growing risk premium in France. Complete data is not available for Spanish Bonos, Italian BTP, or British Gilt yields across all maturities, nor for BTP-Bund or Bonos-Bund spreads, nor for auctions. The main drivers were: 1) the ECB's rate hike and hawkish tone, 2) the higher-than-expected US PPI, and 3) rising energy prices, which are increasing inflation expectations. The 2s10s and 5s30s curves cannot be precisely analyzed due to lack of data, but the movement in the short end suggests a flattening. The conclusion is that the market is pricing in a more restrictive monetary policy, with peripheral bonds under pressure.

Overall sentiment in the European corporate credit market showed no pronounced directional movements in the session on Thursday, September 10, 2026. Credit markets have remained relatively resilient, although any observable movement appears driven more by beta factors than by differentiated active flows. No specific data is available for the iTraxx Europe Main, iTraxx Crossover indices, European investment-grade credit spreads, or credit ETF flows (HYG, LQD) for the close date. The main drivers that could have influenced this are: 1) the restrictive tone from the ECB, which increases funding costs, 2) the rebound in sovereign debt yields, which competes with credit, and 3) geopolitical uncertainty, which could affect risk aversion. However, the lack of concrete data prevents a more precise assessment. The conclusion is that European credit shows resilience, but without evidence of active flows to justify a change in narrative.

The foreign exchange market showed a slight depreciation of the euro against the dollar, with the EUR/USD pair trading around 1.1630. Sterling also lost ground against the dollar, with GBP/USD at 1.3524, representing a decrease of 0.17%. USD/JPY remained at elevated levels, closing at 154.08. The DXY dollar index remained strong, close to 98.79. The main drivers were: 1) expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed, driven by higher-than-expected US producer inflation data, 2) the ECB's rate hike, though anticipated, was not enough to counteract the dollar's momentum, and 3) the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, which favors the dollar as a safe haven. The EUR/USD movement lacks conviction and remains range-bound, with attention focused on upcoming macroeconomic data. Sterling remains pressured by Brexit uncertainty and BoE policy, though without specific data from the session. The yen remains weak, with USD/JPY at 154.08, near recent highs, reflecting monetary policy divergence.

Energy commodity prices experienced sharp increases in the session on Thursday, September 10, 2026. Brent crude closed at 107.63 dollars per barrel, up 6.34%, reaching intraday highs of up to 109.20 dollars. European natural gas (TTF) also rose, with the one-month contract closing at 82.56 euros/MWh, an increase of 3.4%. These increases were driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which generated fears of oil and gas supply disruptions. Gold (XAU/USD) traded lower, closing at 4,363.96 dollars per ounce, compared to 4,420.33 dollars on Wednesday. This decline occurred despite safe-haven demand in an environment of geopolitical tensions, as the strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations limited its appeal. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at 14,390.00 dollars per tonne, down 3%. Aluminum on the LME closed at 3,274.5 dollars per metric tonne, a decrease of 2.54%. Industrial metals were affected by concerns about the impact of inflation on manufacturing costs and the possible reconsideration of copper tariffs by the U.S. The main drivers were: 1) geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, 2) the strengthening dollar, and 3) rising interest rate expectations. The conclusion is that energy maintains a geopolitical risk premium, while industrial metals and gold suffer from the strong dollar and interest rate expectations.

Main European equity indices registered declines on Thursday, September 10, 2026, weighed down by the restrictive tone of the ECB, geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, and the rebound in bond yields. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 6,268.97 points, down 0.67%. The German DAX decreased by 0.84% to 25,361 points. Paris's CAC 40 experienced a fall between 0.5% and 0.7%. London's FTSE 100 closed at 10,608.92 points, down 0.57%. The Spanish IBEX 35, after opening with a rise of 0.64% to 19,822 points, showed a marginally positive futures close at 19,701.6 points, with an increase of 0.09%. This divergent performance of the IBEX could be interpreted as a technical reaction after previous declines, though without generating sustained conviction for the close. The main drivers were: 1) the ECB raised rates and revised inflation upwards, 2) US PPI data reinforced expectations of Fed rate hikes, and 3) the increase in oil and gas generated concerns about corporate margins. The move lacks follow-through, and conviction remains limited, with interest rate markets confirming the view of higher rates, which does not support optimism in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the session on Thursday, September 10, 2026, at $76,910.53. Ethereum (ETH/USD) settled at $2,447.71 at the close. Both cryptocurrencies showed a downward trend in the session, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and inflationary concerns, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets. The main drivers were: 1) the rebound in bond yields, which reduces the attractiveness of risk assets, 2) the strengthening dollar, which exerts downward pressure on dollar-denominated cryptocurrency prices, and 3) geopolitical uncertainty, which has not generated safe-haven demand in crypto this time. Price action suggests a lack of buying conviction, with investors focused on traditional assets. The market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum is not available, but is estimated to follow a similar trend. The conclusion is that cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, without notable proprietary catalysts.

The trading session on Thursday, September 10, 2026, reflects a consolidation of the 'higher for longer' narrative, driven by ECB actions and US inflation data. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a dominant factor, exerting upward pressure on energy prices and keeping inflation a central concern for central banks. Markets are expected to remain volatile as participants assimilate the implications of these dynamics. Upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's decision will be key catalysts to watch. In Europe, attention will focus on the implementation of ECB policy and the evolution of peripheral spreads, especially the OAT-Bund, which has widened to 90 bps. The lack of granular data in some segments limits analysis, but the direction is clear: rates markets are pricing in further tightening, equities lack conviction, and credit remains resilient but without active flows. Key levels to monitor are the 2-year Bund at 3.19%, the 10-year Treasury at 4.845%, Brent at 107.63 USD/bbl, and EUR/USD at 1.1630.